There is no award for the Swans player who heads the club vote in the Brownlow Medal each year. So, in the countdown to Sunday night’s 2022 count, let’s pretend there is one.
But before we contemplate who might win it first, we need a name for it.
Ordinarily, if you were to think Swans and Brownlow you automatically go to Bob Skilton, who not only won the game’s highest individual honour three times but also polled a club record 180 votes all-time.
But there is already a Bob Skilton Medal for the annual Swans club champion. So how else might we name this new fictious award?
Statistics point to Herbie Matthews, who was South Melbourne’s first Brownlow Medallist in 1940, and also heads the club vote on a votes-per-game basis at 0.86 – equal sixth all-time.
Matthews, the 191-game champion from 1932-45 named on the wing in the Swans Team of the Century, polled 32 votes in 18 games to share the 1940 medal with Collingwood’s Des Fothergill. Or 1.78 votes per game.
On a votes per game basis since the first Brownlow Medal in 1924, adjusted for comparison purposes, Matthews’ 1940 effort would win the medal in all but three years.
In 1925, when only one vote was awarded in each game, St Kilda winner Colin Watson polled nine votes in 15 games at 1.80 votes per game.
In 1937 Essendon’s Dick Reynolds polled 27 votes in 15 games at 1.80 votes per game to win the second of his three medals.
And in the Covid-shortened season of 2020, Brisbane’s Lachie Neale averaged a record 1.82 votes per game to win with 31 votes in 17 games.
So, we’ll call the fictitious award for the Swans’ leading vote-getter in the Brownlow Medal the Herbie Matthews Medal.
Who might be the inaugural winner on Sunday night?
If voting in the AFL Coach’s Association Player of the Year Award is any sort of guide, it will be a battle in two between Callum Mills and Chad Warner.
This is based on a conversion of the 5-4-3-2-1 votes awarded by each coach after each game are converted to notional 3-2-1 Brownlow votes. Or ‘Coachlow’ votes.
For example, in Round 1 against GWS the coaches awarded Luke Parker polled 10 votes, GWS’ Tom Green eight votes, and Ollie Florent and Isaac Heeney five votes each. So the ‘Coachlow’ votes would be Parker (3), Green (2) and Florent and Heeney (0.5).
On this basis, Warner will head the Swans vote to capture the inaugural Herbie Matthews Medal. He polls 16.5 ‘Coachlow’ votes to Mills’ 15.33 votes. Next best is Tom Papley (6) from Lance Franklin (5.5), Errol Gulden (5), James Rowbottom (5) and Parker (4.5).
It’s a system that has mixed form. In Neale’s record-breaking year of 2020 the ‘Coachlow’ predictor was on the money. The conversion had Neale (27) on top of the ‘Coachlow’ leaderboard from Port Adelaide’s Travis Boak (22), Melbourne’s Christian Petracca (19.5) and St Kilda’s Jack Steele (17), before Neale (31) won the Brownlow from Boak (21), Petracca (20) and Steele (20).
The 2021 ‘Coachlow’ leaderboard wasn’t so accurate. It had Western Bulldogs’ Marcus Bontempelli (28.5) on top from Steele (27.5), Oliver (26), Gold Coast’s Touk Miller (23) and Port Adelaide’s Ollie Wines (23) before Wines (36) won the Brownlow from Bontempelli (33), Oliver (31) and Carlton’s Sam Walsh (30).
In 2019 Bontempelli again topped the ‘Coachlow’ vote with 27 from Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield (24.5), Geelong’s Tim Kelly (23), Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe (21.5), West Coast’s Luke Shuey (20.25), Cripps and (20.5), Neale (20.33) and Collingwood’s Brodie Grundy (20). But Fyfe polled 33 Brownlow votes to claim his second medal from Dangerfield (27), Cripps and Neale (26) and Kelly (24). Bontempelli (22) was tied for eighth.
The 2022 Coachlow leaderboard has Neale (24.5) winning from a bolter – Port Adelaide All-Australian Connor Rozee (22.25). Gold Coast’s Touk Miller (21.5) and Patrick Cripps (21.5) finished equal third from Oliver and Geelong’s Jeremy Cameron (21), Petracca (19.5) and Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw (19.33).
It’s all part of a rich Brownlow Medal history in which the Swans’ head the aggregate medal list with 14 from St Kilda (10), Western Bulldogs (10), Collingwood (9), Fitzroy (8), Essendon (8), Richmond (7), Melbourne (7), Geelong (7), Hawthorn (6), North Melbourne (5), Carlton (5), Brisbane (4), West Coast (3), Fremantle (2), Gold Coast (1), Adelaide (1), Port Adelaide (1).
Swans winners are:
Bob Skilton – 1959, ’63 and ‘68
Adam Goodes – 2003 and ‘06
Herbie Matthews – 1940
Ron Clegg – 1949
Fred Goldsmith – 1955
Peter Bedford – 1970
Graham Teasdale – 1977
Barry Round – 1981
Greg Williams – 1986
Gerard Healy – 1988
Paul Kelly - 1995
So, what can Swans fans expect this year?
A Brownlow Medal Form Guide would point to nine Swans games in which coach John Longmire and his counterpart agreed on who was best afield, which equates to three Brownlow votes. Mills registered three perfect 10-vote ratings in Rounds 5, 6 and 9, while the other six were split one apiece to Parker (Round 1), Heeney (Round 2), Justin McInerney (Round 4), Jake Lloyd (Round 15), Warner (Round 18) and Papley (Round 19).
There were five other games in which Swans players topped the coach’s vote. In Round 11 Franklin was a clear best with nine coaches votes and in Round 16 Warner and Essendon’s Nick Hind each polled eight. In Round 17 it was Warner (9) from Papley (8). In Round 20 it was Gulden (9) from Rowbottom (8). And in Round 22 it was Mills (9) from Rowbottom (8).
There were four games in which the Swans polled all 30 votes from the coaches, pointing to a 3-2-1 Brownlow cleansweep. They were Rounds 5, 9, 15 and 17. Also, the Swans polled 29 coaches votes in Round 6, 27 votes in Rounds 18 and 20, 25 votes in Round 22 and 24 votes in Rounds 2 and 11.
There are three games where Swans fans can brace themselves for a wipe – they did not register a vote from the coaches in Rounds 3 and 8, and in Round 10 they polled just one vote. In Round 14 it was just five votes – all to Heeney.
The ‘Coachlow’ votes suggest the Swans will have three players who poll in the medal for the first time – McInerney, Blakey and Rowbottom.
Also, Lance Franklin needs four votes to become the ninth player to poll 100 Brownlow Medal votes for the Swans. The others are:
180 – Bob Skilton
163 – Adam Goodes
146 – Josh Kennedy
126 – Luke Parker
121 – Ron Clegg
117 – Herbie Matthews
106 – Dan Hannebery
103 – Paul Kelly
SWANS BROWNLOW MEDAL FORM GUIDE
R1 – Sydney 17.10 (112) d GWS 13.14 (92) at Accord Stadium
Luke Parker had 21 possessions, kicked five goals, won the Brett Kirk Medal and polled 10 coaches votes, so he should poll three Brownlow votes. Isaac Heeney (25 possessions and three goals) and Ollie Florent (20 possessions and three goals) are favored for the minor votes.
R2 – Sydney 17.5 (107) d Geelong 10.17 (77) at SCG
Isaac Heeney picked up 10 coaches votes for 21 possessions and five goals and is favoured to take three Brownlow votes. Callum Mills (29 possessions, one goal) should also figure.
R3 – W/Bulldogs 9.17 (71) d Sydney 9.6 (60) at Marvel Stadium
No votes
R4 – Sydney 13.8 (86) d North Melbourne 12.3 (75) at SCG
Justin McInerney should poll his first Brownlow votes after his first 30-possession game and a goal in the spluttering win over North earned him 10 coaches votes.
R5 – Sydney 18.13 (121) d West Coast 9.4 (58) at Perth Stadium
Callum Mills’ 28 possessions earned him 10 coaches votes, while Peter Ladhams’ 24 possessions, a goal and 25 hit-outs is tipped to earn him his first Swans medal votes.
R6 – Sydney 16.13 (109) d Hawthorn 10.8 (68) in Launceston
Callum Mills could find himself quickly in double figures on the Brownlow leaderboard after a career-best 37 possessions and a goal earned him 10 coaches votes. Lance Franklin (three goals) and Chad Warner (24 possessions and two goals) will contend for the minor votes.
R7 – Brisbane 17.11 (113) d Sydney 13.11 (89) at SCG
Lance Franklin kicked six goals and will be the only possible Swans vote-getter.
R8 – Gold Coast 10.15 (75) d Sydney 8.13 (61) at SCG
No votes.
R9 – Sydney 14.21 (105) d Essendon 6.11 (47) at SCG
Callum Mills (29 possessions and 13 tackles) was best afield according to both coaches as Chad Warner had his first 30-possession game and Tom Papley (21 possessions and two goals) was good in his third game of the season.
R10 – Carlton 15-12 (102) d Sydney 13-9 (87) at Marvel Stadium
No votes
R11 – Sydney 16-10 (106) d Richmond 15-10 (100) at SCG
Lance Franklin’s give goals earned him nine votes from the coaches as the Swans won a clinker after trailing at every change. Chad Warner polled six coaches votes.
R12 – Sydney 10.13 (73) d Melbourne 9.7 (61) at MCG
The coaches votes were split, with Sam Reid’s 16 possessions, three goals and 10 tackles a chance to earn him his first Brownlow votes since 2019.
R13 – BYE
R14 – Port Adelaide 12.10 (82) d Sydney 8.11 (59) at Adelaide Oval
Isaac Heeney’s 16 possessions and four goals could see him sneak into the votes.
R15 – Sydney 12.11 (83) d St.Kilda 4.8 (32) at SCG
Jake Lloyd’s 39 possessions – 10 better than any other game this year – each him top votes from both coaches. Nick Blakey’s first 30-possession game also will have him in the mix with Ollie Florent, who had 27 possessions and a goal.
R16 – Essendon 15.5 (95) d Sydney 12.14 (86) at MCG
Chad Warner is the only likely Swans vote-getter after his 25 possessions and three goals.
R17 – Sydney 17.18 (120) d Western Bulldogs 9.13 (67) at SCG
Chad Warner (25 possessions and two goals), Tom Papley (24 possessions and two goals), Sam Reid (15 possessions, 25 hit-outs and a career-best 13 tackles) and Isaac Heeney (17 possessions and four goals) could all be in the mix.
R18 – Sydney 11.16 (82) d Fremantle 9.11 (65) at Perth Stadium
Chad Warner’s career-best 35 possessions and a goal earned him maximum votes from the coaches in a come-from-behind win, while Errol Gulden (23 possessions and two goals) and Callum Mills (26 possessions and nine tackles) were next best with the coaches.
R19 – Sydney 17.16 (118) d Adelaide 12.13 (85) at SCG
Tom Papley’s 22 possessions, two goals and three goal assists earned 10 votes from the coaches, while Nick Blakey’s 26 possessions will also have him in the mix.
R20 – Sydney 17.10 (112) d GWS 5.9 (39) at SCG
Luke Parker’s season-high 34 possessions earned him his fifth Brett Kirk Medal, but the coaches had Errol Gulden (33 possessions and two goals) and Justin McInerney (23 possessions, a goal and a career-best 13 tackles) ahead of him.
R21 – Sydney 18.18 (126) d North Melbourne 13.10 (88) at Marvel Stadium
Chad Warner (20 possessions and three goals) saw him rated best of the Swans players with the coaches while Tom Hickey had 20 possessions and 38 hit-outs in a dominant display in the ruck.
R22 – Sydney 11-11 (77) d Collingwood 7-8 (50) at SCG
Callum Mills (29 possessions), James Rowbottom (24 possessions, one goal and eight tackles) and Paddy McCartin were the standouts according to the coaches as the Swans ended the Magpies’ winning streak.
R23 – Sydney 13-10 (88) d St.Kilda 11-8 (74) at Marvel Stadium
St Kilda took 19 of 30 votes from the coaches despite the Swans’ win, with James Rowbottom’s 24 possessions, one goal, seven tackles and five coaches votes suggesting he is the Swans player most likely to figure in the medal votes.
Full Swans voting in the ‘Coachlow’: Chad Warner 16.5, Callum Mills 15.33, Tom Papley 6, Lance Franklin 5.5, Errol Gulden 5, James Rowbottom 5, Luke Parker 4.5, Isaac Heeney 3.5, Justin McInerney 3.5, Peter Ladhams 3, Jake Lloyd 3, Nick Blakey 2.5, Ollie Florent 2, Tom Hickey 1, Paddy McCartin 0.83, Logan McDonald 0.33.
And if we were to award retrospective Herbie Matthews Medals? Skilton would top the list with 10. He topped the Swans vote 10 times in 11 years, in 1958-60 and 1962-68.
Two-time Brownlow Medallist Adam Goodes would be next with seven – in 2003 and 2006-11 – while Matthews (1936-37, and ‘39-41) and Paul Kelly (1993-96 and ‘98) would have five.
Other multiple winners (including ties) would be Ron Clegg (4), Barry Round (4), Greg Williams (4), Peter Reville (3), Luke Parker (3), Harry Clarke (2), Bob Pratt (2), Peter Bedford (2), Graham Teasdale (2), Tony Lockett (2), Wayne Schwass (2), Josh Kennedy (2) and Lance Franklin (2).
There would be 42 one-time winners: Mark Tandy, Les Woodford, Charlie Pannam, Roy Cazaly, Austin Robertson, Danny Wheelahan, Bill Faul, Laurie Nash, Jim, Reid, Jack Graham, Harry Mears, Ron Bywater, Billy Williams, Bill Gunn, Eddie Lane, Fred Goldsmith, Jim Dorgan, Jim Taylor, Frank Johnson, John Rantall, Wayne Walsh, Russell Cook, Norm Goss, Brian Roberts, Neville Fields, Peter Morrison, David Ackerly, Steven Taubert, John Ironmonger, Gerard Healy, Gareth John, Dennis Carroll, Brad Tunbridge, Dale Lewis, Paul Roos, Michael O’Loughlin, Matthew Nicks, Paul Williams, Brett Kirk, Barry Hall, Dan Hannebery and Callum Mills.
