Errol Gulden will go into the 2023 Brownlow Medal vote count on Monday night with every chance of another significant line to his breakout season, becoming just the 15^th player in Swans history to poll 20 votes in a season – and if he does, he will be the second youngest.

If voting in the AFL Coaches Association Player of the Year Award is any sort of guide, the Sydney Swans’ only All-Australian selection this year will also be the 44^th Swans player to finish top 10 in the game’s highest individual award since its inception in 1924.

Gulden, who this year became the Swans’ youngest All-Australian selection, finished 6^th in the AFLCA Player of the Year, determined by the 5-4-3-2-1 votes of each coach in each match.

The 21-year-old wingman/midfielder polled 88 votes to rank behind Port Adelaide’s Zac Butters (109), Western Bulldogs’ Marcus Bontempelli (102), Collingwood’s Nick Daicos (99), Melbourne’s Christian Petracca (98) and Brisbane’s Lachie Neale (91), and ahead of Port’s Connor Rozee (87), Fremantle’s Caleb Serong (87), and GWS’ Toby Greene and St Kilda’s Jack Sinclair (77).

And if the coaches’ votes are converted to notional 3-2-1 Brownlow Medal votes – or ‘Coachlow’ votes – the 21-year-old Swans ace would jump to fifth on the leaderboard.

In the ‘Coachlow’, Bontempelli (28) heads the indicative tally from Daicos (26.5), Butters (25.33), Neale (24) and Gulden (23.25), from Petracca (23), Serong (21.25), Greene (20.08), Rozee (19.33) and Gold Coast’s Noah Anderson (19).

It’s all part of a Brownlow story which began for Gulden with two votes in his AFL debut against Brisbane at the Gabba in Round 1, 2021, when had 19 possessions and kicked three goals in a 31-point Swans win.

On available data, he is one of just five Swans players known to have polled on debut.

Amazingly, John Ironmonger (two votes) and Darren McAsey (one vote) did so in the same game against St Kilda at Moorabbin in Round 1, 1985, while Adam Schneider polled one vote in his first game in Round 1, 2003 and ex-rookie Heath Grundy polled one vote in Round 16, 2006.

Gulden, who was 233 days younger than the Swans’ previous youngest All-Australian, David Ackerley in 1982, is at unbackable odds to become the 60^th different Swans player to head the club count in what will be the 106^th presentation of the Brownlow.

Named in honour of Charles Brownlow,  a former Geelong player, League administrator and AFL Hall of Famer who died in 1923, was introduced in 1924 to recognise the player judged best and fairest in the competition.

Decided from 1924-30 by one vote only awarded by the umpire in each match, it switched to the now traditional 3-2-1 voting system in 1931. It was not awarded from 1942-45 due to World War Two, and in 1976-77 two umpires each awarded 3-2-1 votes, meaning there were twice as many votes in total.

According to the ‘Coachlow’ conversions, Chad Warner (13) will be the No.2 Swans vote-getter from Nick Blakey (9), Luke Parker (8), Tom Papley (3.5), Callum Mills (3), Isaac Heeney (2.5), Joel Amartey, Will Hayward, Hayden McLean and Dane Rampe (2), Ollie Florent (1.5), Lance Franklin (1), Harry Cunningham (1), Peter Ladhams (1), and possibly Braeden Campbell (0.5) and Logan McDonald (0.5).

The ‘Coachlow’ suggests Amartey will poll his first Brownlow votes in his 14^th game in Round 2, when he kicked four goals in an 81-point SCG win over Hawthorn in Round 2, when only Mills, rated best afield by both coaches, polled higher.

Also, in line for his first votes after a much longer wait is veteran Harry Cunningham, who was ranked the third-best player in the Round 14 loss to Brisbane, when he held All-Australian forward pocket Charlie Cameron goalless.

It was Cunningham’s 174^th game and his 162^nd home-and-away game after he went into the 2023 season equal 10^th on the AFL list of most home-and-games without a Brownlow Medal vote.

It is a list headed by Jordan Roughead (WB/Coll) 193, Tom Lonergan (Geel) 191, Nick Smith (Syd) 191, Ben Stratton (Haw) 183, Luke Brown (Adel) 182, Nathan Brown (Coll/StK) 173, Adam Tomlinson (GWS/Carl) 158, Taylor Duryea (Haw/WB) 156), Neville Jetta (Melb) 156, Cunningham 150, Shannon Watt (NM) and Ross Henshaw (NM) 150.

Nick Blakey is also set to poll in the medal for the first time, and according to the ‘Coachlow’, is a chance in four games – Round 5 against Richmond when he had a career-best 30 possessions, Round 11 against Carlton, Round 16 in the draw against Geelong, and in the one-point Round 23 win over Adelaide that got Sydney into the finals.

Lance Franklin’s last Brownlow Medal vote could come in his 353^rd and penultimate game in Round 19, when he kicked three goals to rank behind only Parker and Fremantle’s Caleb Serong in the coaches votes.

Gulden, who polled two votes in 17 eligible games in his 2021 debut season and three votes in 22 eligible games in 2022, is looking to join a Swans Brownlow history dominated by the three-time winner and new Sport Australian Hall of Fame legend Bob Skilton.

Not only did Skilton will the Brownlow in 1959, ’63 and ’68, he finished top 10 no less than nine times. He was third in 1958, sixth in 1962 and ‘65, seventh in 1960, and ‘67 and eighth in 1964.  Adam Goodes was top 10 six times, and Herbie Matthews five times.

Skilton topped 10 votes a club-record nine times from Goodes (7), Jude Bolton, Josh Kennedy, Paul Kelly, Luke Parker (6), Herbie Matthews, Brett Kirk and Dan Hannebery (5).

Skilton’s career vote tally of 180, adjusted to smooth out the ‘double votes’ of 1976-77, is 15^th on the AFL all-time list behind Gary Ablett Jr (262), Patrick Dangerfield (236), Sam Mitchell (227), Gary Dempsey (218.5), Scott Pendlebury and Robert Harvey (215), Joel Selwood (214), Chris Judd (210), Dustin Martin (204), Brent Harvey (191), Nat Fyfe (187), Lance Franklin and Dane Swan (186), and Simon Black (184).

The now 85-year-old AFL Hall of Fame Legend and Swans Team of the Century captain heads the Swans vote count from Adam Goodes (163), Josh Kennedy (146), Luke Parker (142), Bill Clegg (121), Herbie Matthews Snr (117), Dan Hannebery (106), Franklin (104) and Paul Kelly (103).

Gulden’s anticipated good showing in the Brownlow Medal will add further to a season in which he has written himself into the club record books with 643 possessions at a game average of 27.96.

He became just the 14^th Swans player since the introduction of statistics in 1965 to have 600 possessions in a season – and the youngest.

Using 30 September as a date for comparison purposes, Gulden was 21 years 74 days old - 266 days younger than Parker when he posted his first 600-possession season in 2014.

Others to top 600 possessions in increasing age order from their first 600-possession season have been Dan Hannebery, Barry Mitchell, Greg Williams, Jake Lloyd, Tom Mitchell, Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack, Callum Mills, Daryn Cresswell, Jarrad McVeigh, Wayne Schwass and Ryan O’Keefe.

Hanneberry holds the club record for most possessions in a season at 802 in 2016. Then follows Josh Kennedy’s 787 in 2016 and his 731 in 2015, Tom Mitchell’s 725 in 2016, Hannebery’s 720 in 2015 and Kennedy’s 708 in 2012.

Gulden’s 643 possessions this year is the 15^th highest total in Swans history, with only Hannebery, Kennedy, Tom Mitchell, Parker, Greg Williams, Barry Mitchell, Jarrad McVeigh and Jake Lloyd having posted a higher single-season total.