SUMMARY
These games have been pretty much compulsory viewing since the epic 2012 Grand Final, followed 12 months later by Lance Franklin's defection to the Swans. And the big Bud looms large over this one again, with 34 goals for the season and five last week. Either his great mate Josh Gibson or perhaps James Frawley will stand him. But as good as Franklin has been, he's kicking too many of the Swans goals, and where the Hawks hold a slight edge is their spread of goalkickers, particularly if Cyril Rioli returns. The Hawks have been better in the midfield the last fortnight and the outside run is back as well and if that continues on Friday night they should have the winning edge, albeit just.
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Friday, May 20, 7.50pm AEST
LAST FIVE MEETINGS
R16, 2015, Hawthorn 23.8 (146) d Sydney Swans 7.15 (57) at ANZ Stadium
R8, 2015, Sydney Swans 11.7 (73) d Hawthorn 9.15 (69) at the MCG
GF, 2014, Hawthorn 21.11 (137) d Sydney Swans 11.8 (74) at the MCG
R18, 2014, Hawthorn 15.14 (104) d Sydney Swans 13.16 (94) at the MCG
R8, 2014, Sydney Swans 15.17 (107) d Hawthorn 13.10 (88) at ANZ Stadium
THE SIX POINTS
1. Hawthorn may have won the last clash between the sides by 89 points but the Swans had 17 more disposals, six more tackles and only less inside 50.Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston and Cyril Rioli kicked 12 goals between them for the Hawks.
2. The Hawks continue to be the number one tackling side in 2016, averaging 78.4, and led by Liam Shiels, who is ranked equal second with 58. The Swans are sixth for tackling.
3. Hawthorn has dominated the Swans recently, winning 10 of the last 15 matches, including their last two wins by a combined 152 points.
4. The Swans continue to be the number one ranked team for inside 50s, averaging 63.1, and are ranked third for scoring. The Hawks are eighth for inside 50s and scoring.
5. The Swans are ranked third for free kicks in 2016, averaging 22.1, while the Hawks are equal fifth with 21.8. The Swans are also ranked fourth for free kicks against.
6. If he plays, the Swans' Josh Kennedy will be the highest ranked player on the ground, according to the Schick AFL Player Ratings. He is on 561 points and is ranked ninth overall in the AFL.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Ted Richards. The veteran Swans defender was worked over by the Tigers last Saturday night in his first match back after a fracture cheek bone. The Hawks have multiple weapons in their forward line that have troubled the Swans of late, so Richards needs a big night.
AFL.com.au PREDICTION: Hawthorn by 10 points
