1. Sydney Swans
48 points (12 wins, three losses) 138.8 per cent

The Swans are in red-hot form and returned to the top of the ladder with their 11th straight win against West Coast on Sunday. John Longmire's men have a dream run home with only two games remaining against top-eight sides – Hawthorn and Port Adelaide, both away. They face strugglers St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs, and face Richmond in round 23. Anything but a top-four finish would be a shock, with a top-two placing likely.

The run home:
Rd 17: Carlton at the SCG
Rd 18: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 19: Essendon at the SCG
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at ANZ Stadium

2. Hawthorn
44 points (11 wins, four losses) 142 per cent

After a 5-0 run under stand-in coach Brendon Bolton, cracks emerged in the injury-hit Hawthorn line-up on Friday night. The reigning premiers face a tough run home, playing three of their final seven games against current top-four teams - Fremantle (away), nemesis Geelong and the rampaging Sydney Swans. Collingwood and in-form Adelaide (away) also loom, but Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs should provide some respite. With Brad Sewell and Cyril Rioli recently joining a growing injury list, the Hawks will be relying on less experienced players in their run to September with a top-four spot not yet secured.  

The run home:
Rd 17: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 18: Sydney Swans at the MCG
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Aurora Stadium
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG

3. Port Adelaide
44 points (11 wins, four losses) 139.4 per cent

After an eight-game winning streak mid-season, the Power have suddenly lost three of their past four games. They have been bumped from first to third in the past two weeks and will be desperate to get back on track against Richmond in round 17. Port plays three bottom-half teams in its run home and should still be favoured to lock in a double chance. The challenges for the Power are overcoming the Swans in round 20 and finishing the home and away season with a trip to Perth to face Fremantle. The race will be tight, with just percentage separating positions two to five.

The run home:
Rd 17: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium

4. Fremantle
44 points (11 wins, four losses) 137.3 per cent

The Dockers have a fantastic draw in the run home and they enjoyed a valuable percentage boost in their win over Melbourne in round 16. Their next month includes clashes against St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney and Carlton, leaving them in the mix finish in the top two. The toughest task for the Dockers comes in the final four rounds – they face Geelong away, Hawthorn at home, the Lions in Brisbane and then Port Adelaide at home in round 23.

The run home:
Rd 17: Greater Western Sydney at Patersons Stadium
Rd 18: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Patersons Stadium

5. Geelong
44 points (11 wins, four losses) 107.5 per cent

The Cats remain outside the top four on percentage following their win over the Western Bulldogs, but they have a reasonable run home and a rapidly diminishing injury list. A top-four berth is not out of the question, with clashes against Melbourne and GWS in the next fortnight sure to help them gain some momentum. North Melbourne, Fremantle and Hawthorn shape as tough opponents, but rounding out their home and away campaign at home to the Brisbane Lions gives them the chance to hit the finals in top form.

The run home:
Rd 17: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 18: Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium
Rd 19: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Fremantle at Simonds Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium

6. Collingwood
36 points (nine wins, six losses) 112.7 per cent

Saturday night's loss to Gold Coast has left the Magpies two games adrift of the top four and only one game clear of ninth-placed Adelaide. The pressure is certainly on Nathan Buckley's men after three losses in four games and they have a tough period ahead. Clashes against Essendon and Adelaide in the next fortnight are now serious tests, before taking on Port Adelaide. Matches against the Lions and GWS are the only wins that could be penciled in at this stage. Five wins would be enough for a finals spot but Collingwood is all but out of the top four race.

The run home:
Rd 17: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 18: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 19: Port Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 20: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG

7. North Melbourne
36 points (nine wins, six losses) 110.9 per cent

They don't sit in the top four, but the Roos have now beaten each of the top-four teams in a rollercoaster season. With a relatively easy draw ahead they should finish in the top eight and they have proven they can beat anyone. Five of the Roos' seven remaining games are against bottom-six sides. Geelong is the only top-eight team they meet, with a late surge up the ladder possible if Brad Scott's men can muster some consistency.

The run home:
Rd 17: St Kilda at Blundstone Arena
Rd 18: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Greater Western Sydney at Startrack Oval
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at Blundstone Arena
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium

8. Gold Coast
36 points (nine wins, six losses) 101.5 per cent

The Suns held on to eighth spot with their gutsy win over Collingwood, but Adelaide and Essendon are still breathing down their necks. So much depends on captain Gary Ablett's fitness, with the dual Brownlow medallist suffering a shoulder injury in round 16. Gold Coast should beat the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions and St Kilda in the next three weeks with or without Ablett, but later clashes against Carlton and the Bombers at Etihad Stadium shape as danger games. The Suns' biggest test will come against Port Adelaide at Metricon Stadium in round 21.

The run home:
Rd 17: Western Bulldogs at Cazaly's Stadium
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 19: St Kilda at Metricon Stadium
Rd 20: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at Metricon Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast at Metricon Stadium

9. Adelaide
32 points (eight wins, seven losses) 110 per cent

The Crows boosted their percentage and notched their third win in four games against GWS on Saturday, keeping the pressure on Gold Coast. They play three lower-ranked teams in the run home, keeping them in the mix for eighth spot. The big tests will come against Hawthorn and Collingwood in the next fortnight, while the round 22 clash against North Melbourne looms as a crunch game. There is every chance the Crows could sneak into the finals.

The run home:
Rd 17: Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval
Rd 18: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 19: West Coast at Adelaide Oval
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 21: Richmond at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Blundstone Oval
Rd 23: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval

10. Essendon
32 points (eight wins, seven losses) 104.8 per cent

Essendon's thrilling win over Port Adelaide has rejuvenated its finals hopes after a stuttering first half of the season. Even without taking the long-term injury to captain Jobe Watson into consideration, the Bombers don't have a friendly run home, facing three current top-eight teams including the ladder-leading Swans. Locked in a battle for eighth spot with Gold Coast and Adelaide, the Bombers' losses to lower-ranked teams earlier this season are likely to come back to bite them. The round 22 clash with the Suns will be crucial.  

The run home:
Rd 17: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: West Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG

11. West Coast
24 points (six wins, nine losses) 107.7 per cent

Now three games outside the top eight, the Eagles would be required to turn their form around and produce an undefeated run in their last seven matches to play finals. Travel is one issue for the Eagles with a trip to Brisbane off a six-day break and another short break to face Essendon in Melbourne in round 21. Clashes against Adelaide and Collingwood, who have plenty on the line, will also be difficult. Even if the Eagles negotiate all of that successfully, they make the longest road trip in the AFL in round 23 to face the Suns at Metricon Stadium. They are almost certainly too far adrift.  

The run home:
Rd 17: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 18: Richmond at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 20: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium