Sydney Swans vs. Carlton

The key match-up
Chris Judd vs. Ryan O'Keefe
When Port Adelaide upset the Sydney Swans last week, it really got on top in the contested possessions in the second half. Although it's fair to say that he's slowing down, Judd is still a clear leader in contested possessions for the Blues averaging 12 a game (next best is Brock McLean with 9.7). Judd also leads Carlton in the clearances with 5.2. The Swans have a brilliant midfield and if Carlton is going to compete in that area it needs Judd to play well, despite the fact he'll likely have O'Keefe matched up on him.

Leigh says: 'Let's start with what the Swans are very good at, which is contested possessions, clearances and tackles. They lead the competition averages in all of those categories, so for Carlton to win that's where it has to match them, in those work ethic areas. Without Marc Murphy, Judd becomes even more critical, because he's the Blues' leading stoppage player. Most likely he's going to have O'Keefe as a match-up. One of the things we've noticed most about Chris in this latter part of his career is that he still works very hard inside, but he's not getting the great acceleration on the outside as well and O'Keefe has the body size and strength to compete with him. So that becomes a key match-up, Judd becomes just about Carlton's most important player in this game, and O'Keefe is a pretty good match-up for him.'

The key players
Kurt Tippett and Dan Hannebery
Tippett and Hannebery are playing very different roles for the Swans, but each will be extremely important. Tippett played his first game of the season last week, and after a strong start he finished with six disposals, three marks, five tackles and two goals. The Swans would have much preferred to ease him into the side without too much pressure, but with an array of injuries to big men, his performance in this game becomes critical. Hannebery has become extremely important for the Swans midfield, especially with his ability to make an impact on the scoreboard. Last week he was tagged out of the game by Kane Cornes and held to only 13 disposals. For the season he is averaging 26.6 disposals (second at the Swans), 3.2 clearances, 3.6 inside 50s and 1.1 goals.

Leigh says: 'We know that Kurt Tippett is playing only his second game, but all of a sudden with Reid, Goodes and Mumford all injured, he becomes the Swans' absolute key. Tippett is what I call the forward-ruckman type, but I think that when you haven't got Goodes and Reid, you've got to use him mainly as your forward target. It's only his second game, but it's very fortunate that the Swans have him, because with all their other injuries, if he wasn't available they'd be looking quite second rate. Hannebery is now getting heavily tagged because all of a sudden he's seen to be their main ball carrier, and they're the guys that you tend to be shutting down. In the nine games this season that Hannebery hasn't been tagged, he's averaged nine score involvements. In the three games he has been tagged, he's only averaged two score involvements. So those kinds of numbers make Carlton look at the Swans and say that Hannebery's the main one we have to put work into.'

The Last Word
Sydney Swans to win

Leigh says: 'I really think Carlton has a very good chance. The Swans without Goodes, Reid and Mumford seem very undermanned, but I can't tip against them at the SCG.'