Historically, in pure mathematical terms the chance of the Swans finding a future 100-gamer in the upcoming AFL draft is 15.8 per cent. For a 200-gamer it’s 6.2 per cent. And there’s a 52.9 per cent chance a player picked up and won’t play an AFL game.
This is based on the fact that since the two fledgling AFL drafts of 1981-82, and the always evolving national draft system that has been in place since 1986, the Swans have drafted 291 different players.
There have been 154 who have not played at AFL level, 46 who played 100 games and just 18 who have topped 200 games.
A further 80 (27.5 per cent) played 1-10 games, 29 (10.0 per cent) played 11-25 games, 23 (7.9 per cent) played 26-49 games. And 78 of 291 draftees (26.8 per cent) have played 50 games without getting to 100.
It’s a horribly imprecise science but there is one undeniable fact … from the moment a player is tagged by the club his draft number means little. Perhaps an early pick might get a couple of extra chances, or might be given a little extra time to deliver, but essentially it quickly becomes all about performance.
And if you need any proof look at the 18 Swans draftees who have played 200-plus games.
Nine of the club’s 200-game draftees were taken in the National Draft, seven were in the rookie draft, one in the mid-season draft, and one was a zone selection from the early days when an actual draft pick was not assigned to a zone choice. And the nine who came out of the National Draft were not exactly elite picks. In increasing order, they were 5-8-8-18-30-40-40-43-56.
In order, the 200-game draftees have been:
Daryn Creswell, the club’s first 200-game draftee, had originally been drafted from Glenorchy in Hobart to Geelong as pick #34 in the 1988 National Draft. But he spent barely three months at the Cats and played only in the Reserves before going home to join North Hobart in 1990.
He was a premiership player with North Hobart in 1991 before being picked up by the Swans with pick #39 in the 1993 Mid-Season Draft. This was the fourth year of a draft variation introduced in 1990 and cancelled in 1993 before it was reintroduced in 2019.
In the same Mid-Season Draft the Swans took Glenelg’s Dwaine Kretschmer at #5, North Hobart’s Peter Baldwin at #20, Essendon’s Paul McMaster at #31 and Burnie’s Paul Atkins at #44. Atkins, twin brother of Footscray’s Simon Atkins, played two games. Kretschmer, Baldwin and McMaster didn’t play at AFL level.
Michael O’Loughlin, the Swans’ first 300-game player, and Leo Barry, famous for his late high mark in the 2005 grand final win, were the Swans’ second and third 200-game draftees in a double ‘win’ via in the 1994 National Draft.
Barry, from Deniliquin in the Riverina, was a pre-draft zone selection with Albury’s Tim Scott and Tocumwal’s Justin Crawford to begin his 237-game career, while O’Loughlin was drafted at #40 from SANFL club Central Districts. He played 303 games.
This was the year the Swans invested pick #2 and pick #3 on Anthony Rocca and Shannon Grant only to see them return home to Victoria. Rocca played 22 games with Sydney before 220 at Collingwood, and Grant 58 in Sydney before 243 at North.
At #20 Sydney took Stuart Mangin, who didn’t play at AFL level in three years with the club but did manage three games at Collingwood in 1998, and at #21 Swans nabbed Matthew Nicks, a 175-gamer now coach of the Adelaide Crows.
Later in the draft they took Emil Parthenides from the Eastern Ranges U18s at #57 who didn’t play at AFL level. At #74 they redrafted Troy Luff, who was 32 games into his 155-game career, and at #87 they picked up Simon Arnott from Central Districts (SANFL), who played 30 games in red and white from 1995-98 and 26 with Geelong from 1999-2000.
The Swans’ next four 200-game draftees joined the club via the National Draft.
Jared Crouch was pick #8 in 1995, and 372-game club record-holder Adam Goodes, drafted at 17 years of age in a year in which each club could take only one 17-year-old, went at #43 in 1997.
Jude Bolton was pick #8 in 1998 after the Swans had taken Norwood’s Nic Fosdike (164 games) and South Adelaide’s Ryan Fitzgerald (10 Sydney games, 8 Adelaide games) at #4, before in 1999 Ryan O’Keefe proved to be another value-plus pick-up at #56 after the club had taken Scott Stevens (25 Sydney games, 119 Adelaide games) at #21 and father/son ruckman Stephen Doyle (47 games) at #24.
But between Bolton and O’Keefe on the actual 200-game Honour Roll is Brett Kirk, who was rewarded for his perseverance when taken at #40 in the 1999 Rookie Draft, held prior to Christmas ’98.
The North Albury junior had joined the club in 1996 as an unlisted Reserves player but in 1997 and ’98 went back to the Ovens and Murray League. Not until after he’d captained the Victorian Country representative side did he join the club officially. And only then as the club’s 10th draftee of the 1998-99 off-season.
After Fosdike, Fitzgerald and Bolton went top 10 in the 1998 National Draft the club took Heath James from Port Adelaide’s SANFL side at #28, Essendon cast-off Ryan O’Connor at #52, East Fremantle ruckman Dwayne Simpson at #59 and Sturt’s Simon Feast at #71.
They took 1990 Collingwood premiership player Scott Russell at #9 in the Pre-Season Draft, and in the Rookie Draft chose Paul Allison from North Hobart at #26 before Kirk at #40.
James, who carries the distinction of being the only player drafted three times by the Swans, played 18 games in six injury-plagued seasons from 1999-2004, O’Connor played 24 games in red and white, Simpson none (but two for Fremantle in 2001) and Feast 14 games. Russell played 16 and Allison did not play at the AFL level. Kirk played 241.
Jarrad McVeigh restored a degree of normality to the Swans draft history, launching his 325-game career from pick #5 in the 2002 National Draft. He was the club’s ninth 200th-game draftee, but the next three were all rookies.
The unforgettable seasons of 2005-06, when Sydney beat West Coast by four points in the ’05 grand final and lost to West Coast by a point in ‘06, meant for a reduced draft hand in those years, but delivered two pieces of rookie ‘gold’ in Heath Grundy and Kieren Jack.
In 2005 the Swans had three picks in the 50’s in the National Draft and seven rookie picks for a total return of 286 games. Grundy, the third of the rookies at #42, played 256 of them after Matthew Laidlaw (1), Kristin Thornton (8) and Ryan Brabazon (3) delivered a combined 12 games out of the National Draft. Guy Campbell, the Swans first rookie pick at #12, played one game and Luke Vogels, pick #28, played 17 games, but four picks after Grundy didn’t play – pick #54 Stefan Garrubba, #59 Earl Shaw, #61 Ed Clarke and #63 Andrew Hayes.
It was a similar story in 2006 except for Jesse White, the club’s fourth pick in the National Draft. Taken at #79, White delivered 71 games before switching to Collingwood. This was after the club’s first three picks – #15 Daniel O’Keefe, #49 Daniel Currie and #65 Peter Faulks – failed to play at the level.
But Jack, the fifth of eight rookies taken at #58, was the real saviour with his 256 games. Of the others, only rookie pick #54 Simon Phillips (five games) and #60 Ed Barlow (26 games) played in red and white.
Oddly, four Swans rookies from 2006 who didn’t play for the club at AFL level did play elsewhere – including 2013 Hawthorn premiership team member Jonathan Simpkin. He split 41 games across Geelong, Hawthorn and Essendon, while Simon Phillips played eight games at Port Adelaide, Ed Barlow eight games at Western Bulldogs, and Sam Rowe 99 games at Carlton and one at St Kilda.
Nick Smith continued the rookie gold rush in 2007, playing 211 games from rookie #15 after the club’s third pick in the National Draft, zone scholarship holder Craig Bird at #59, delivered 137 games. And in 2008 Dan Hannebery was chosen at #30 ahead of his 209 games in red and white. Eight others from the Class of 2008 played a total of four games.
The Swans haul from the 2009 National Draft was a beauty. Gary Rohan at #6 played 106 games, Lewis Jetta at #14 played 127 games and Sam Reid at #38 played 181 games. Mike Pyke, a 110-game ruckman and 2012 premiership player, was a bonus at rookie pick #57.
Sixteen years after the Swans claimed a club great at pick #40 in the 1994 National Draft they did it again with pick #40 in the 2010 National Draft when they nabbed Luke Parker. But even the 293-game ex-skipper was taken behind #21 Jed Lamb, who managed only 21 games for the club before 10 games at GWS and 44 at Carlton.
The Swans four other 200-game draftees are current players – three rookies who posted their double-century in the reverse order to which they were drafted, and a zone pick for which the club “paid” pick #18 in the 2014 National Draft.
Harry Cunningham was the sixth of seven new pick-ups in 2012, taken at #49 in the rookie draft after the club had had taken Dean Towers (57 games) at #22 in the National Draft, Harry Marsh (25 games) at pick #44, Tim Membrey (1 game) at #46 and Matthew Dick (0 games) at #64, and had preferred Shane Biggs, later to become a premiership player at the Bulldogs in 2016, at #13 in the Rookie Draft and re-drafted Campbell Heath at rookie #49.
Jake Lloyd and Dane Rampe were the standouts in the Draft Class of 2013 despite having to wait until after the Swans had used the National Draft to claim four players who, although all well-performed in red and white, are now playing elsewhere.
Pick #15 was Zak Jones. Pick #32 was George Hewett. Pick #35 was Toby Nankervis. And pick #44 was Aliir Aliir. They played 186 games for the club before a system designed to encourage player movement did exactly that.
So it was critical the Swans got the Rookie Draft. And they did. Lloyd was pick #16 before Xavier Richards, who would be his 2016 Grand Final teammate in his 12th and last game, was rookie pick #29. And Rampe, acting captain of the club in the 2024 Grand Final, was rookie pick #37.
Isaac Heeney closes out the 200-game draftees, having joined the Swans via pick #18 in the 2014 National Draft under regulations which have since been replaced by a points-based bidding system, which itself has been rejigged ahead of the 2024 National Draft.
Melbourne, armed with pick #2 at the time, nominated Heeney after St Kilda had taken Paddy McCartin at #1. So, under the system in place at the time, the Swans were able to ‘match’ the Heeney bid with their next available selection – pick #18 – before Melbourne took Christian Petracca at #2 and Angus Brayshaw at #3.
The 200-Game Draftees Club will welcome another member to the ‘rookie’ sub-section next year when Tom Papley, taken with pick #14 in the Rookie Draft after Ollie Florent and Will Hayward had joined the club via pick #11 and pick #21 in the 2016 National Draft.
Three other Swans who narrowly missed 200 Club membership had varying draft journeys – and none included the National Draft. Dale Lewis (182 games) was pick #2 in the first Mid-Season Draft in 1990, Irishman Tadhg Kennelly (197 games) was rookie #9 in 2000, and, like Leo Barry in 1994, Ben Mathews (198 games) was a zone selection in 1995.
History demands that for every successful ‘bolter’ there will be a player who doesn’t quite measure up to pre-draft expectations. Like 12 Swans players chosen in the top 20 in the National Draft who didn’t play a game.
There were two in the first AFL Draft on 8 October 1981 when each of each of 12 clubs in the then VFL chose two players from interstate. There were 15 from the SANFL, seven from the WAFL and two from the NTFA in Tasmania, with South Melbourne taking South Adelaide’s Mark Naley #4 and Phil Brooksby at #16.
In the same draft Hawthorn took 258-game Brownlow Medallist, four-time premiership star and AFL Hall of Famer John Platten from Central Districts at #19, Melbourne chose 135-game dual club champion and future Hall of Famer Alan Johnson and 124-game future club champion Danny Hughes at #1 and #13, and Craig Holden, later to play for the Swans, went from Swan Districts to North Melbourne at #5.
In the 1982 Draft the Swans, as they were by then known, again hit the SANFL to claim Sturt’s Peter Motley at #6 and Port Adelaide’s Greg Anderson at #18. But it was all for nothing. Naley and Motley (both later to play for Carlton), Anderson (later to play for Essendon and Adelaide) and Brooksby, father of recent Gold Coast and Hawthorn player Keegan Brooksby and stepfather to AFLW star turned media commentator Abbey Holmes, never wore Swans colors.
The initial draft system fell apart after it was challenged in court by pocket-sized Swans rover Silvio Foschini who had played 17 games with South Melbourne in 1981 and 21 games with the relocated Sydney Swans in 1982.
But, unhappy in the NSW capital, he joined St Kilda without a clearance. He took the matter to court, where he argued the VFL’s clearances rules breached restraint of trade laws – and won.
So, the fledgling draft and the long-established zoning system were abolished, and the then VFL went back to the drawing board. Four years later, ahead of the expansion of the competition, they rolled out a new system convinced all was in order.
The West Coast Eagles, who would join the new competition with the Brisbane Bears in 1987, had already chosen their inaugural playing list from West Australians already playing in the east, and the strong WAFL competition, and were excluded from the draft.
So on 26 November 1986 each of the 11 Victorian clubs plus Sydney and Brisbane gathered at the old AFL House, around the corner from the MCG, to select five players each. Brisbane had first pick in each round, followed by the other clubs in the reverse finishing order of the 1986 season. Sydney had the 10th pick in each round.
At #10 Sydney took John Brinkhotter from Barooga in the Riverina. He played five games. The other four other draftees were #23 Lyndon Dakin from Longford in Tasmania, #36 Donald Thompson from Albury, #49 Craig Elias from Eastlake in Canberra and #62 Laurie Menhenut from Tocumwal in the Riverina. They never played at AFL level.
The eight other players drafted top 20 to the Swans who never played at AFL level were:
Glen Gorman – pick 4 in 1993 from the Geelong Falcons, he spent an injury-disrupted 1994 season in Sydney without playing at AFL level and joined North Melbourne via the 1995 Pre-Season Draft. He was a dual Reserves premiership player but played only two AFL games in ’96.
Jason Spinks – pick #5 in 1992 from South Fremantle. Lasted two weeks in Sydney before deciding it wasn’t for him. Later joined West Coast in 1995 but never played in the AFL.
Paul Burton – pick #6 in 1991 from Claremont. Utility type who spent his first year on the Sydney list playing in the WAFL.
Daniel O’Keefe – pick #15 in 2006 from Geelong Falcons, he had three injury-plagued years in Sydney was delisted at the end of 2009. Later forced into retirement by a serious back injury, he coached at the Geelong Falcons and later in the Carlton development program from 2020-22.
Josh Willoughby – pick #16 in 2003 from Glenelg. Rover who was judged South Australia’s best player at Under 16 level in 2002 but had three years in Sydney without playing in the AFL.
Anthony Cole – pick #17 in 1991 from North Hobart. A 1991 North Hobart premiership player who spent 18 months in Sydney before returning home. Played 200-plus TFL games with North Hobart and Clarence, adding flags in 1996-97-2000 with Clarence.
Stuart Mangin – pick #20 in 1994 from the Northern Knights. A defender who played three years in the Swans Reserves and at the end of 1997 was traded to Collingwood with Clinton King for Robert AhMat and a draft pick which secured Fred Campbell. Played three AFL games in 1998.
Jacob Konstanty – pick 20 in 2022 from Gippsland Power. He played 23 VFL games for the club in 2023-24 before a foot injury ended second season. Was traded to North Melbourne with Luke Parker.
Interestingly, the 2024 Swans grand final side included no less than seven players who started their AFL career as rookies, and one who got his chance after the AFL introduced for the first time in 2019 a Pre-Season Supplementary Selection Period. And seven players drafted beyond 30 in the National Draft.
The Grand Final team, listed in draft order, was:
National Draftees
#4 – Logan McDonald
#5 – Braeden Campbell
#10 – Nick Blakey
#11 – Ollie Florent
#18 – Isaac Heeney, Brodie Grundy
#21 – Will Hayward
#25 – James Rowbottom
#32 – Errol Gulden
#33 – Tom McCartin, James Jordan
#34 – Matt Roberts
#39 – Chad Warner
#40 – Luke Parker
#44 – Justin McInerney
Rookie Draft
#14 – Tom Papley
#16 – Jake Lloyd
#28 – Joel Amartey
#34 – Robbie Fox
#37 – Dane Rampe
#49 – Harry Cunningham
#52 – Lewis Melican
Pre-Season Supplementary Selection
Hayden McLean
