SUMMARY
Essendon faces a monumental task in trying to conquer Sydney, a team that has lost just twice in its past 16 matches, and a side the Bombers haven't beaten since 2011. The big positive the Bombers can take into the game is their round 14 clash at the SCG, when although John Worsfold's men coughed up what looked like a certain win, but they played a brand of footy that showed they are capable of an upset. Speed will be the name of the game for Essendon, but if the steely Swans can use their big bodies to dominate the stoppages, they will be hard to stop.
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round 14: Sydney 11.20 (86) d Essendon 12.13 (85) at the SCG
The Swans looked gone when they trailed by 19 points with less than five minutes to play, but they somehow managed to find a way to kick the final three goals, with Gary Rohan sealing the result after the final siren.
Gary Rohan celebrates his after the siren goal against the Bombers in Round 14.
LAST FIVE TIMES
R14, 2017, Sydney Swans 11.20 (86) d Essendon 12.13 (85) at the SCG
R7, 2016, Sydney Swans 20.15 (135) d Essendon 7.12 (54) at the SCG
R1, 2015, Sydney Swans 10.12 (72) d Essendon 9.6 (60) at ANZ Stadium
R19, 2014, Sydney Swans 11.13 (79) d Essendon 8.9 (57) at the SCG
R9, 2014, Sydney Swans 18.6 (114) d Essendon 9.10 (64) at Etihad Stadium
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Sydney
1. George Hewett has been handed some big jobs this year and could be sent to star midfielder Zach Merrett. The All Australian Bomber had 33 possessions and eight clearances in round 14.
2. The Bombers kicked seven goals in a row either side of three-quarter time in round 14, and if they get any sort of momentum like that this week, Sam Reid will put himself behind the footy to help the Swans slow the game down.
3. Dane Rampe will get the job on Joe Daniher again after keeping him quiet last time they met, but John Longmire could use Lewis Melican if he would prefer Rampe up the ground where he can be damaging on the counter attack.
Essendon
1. John Worsfold could tag team Lance Franklin with Michael Hurley and Michael Hartley, using Hurley as a loose man to help out in the air, and back himself to provide plenty of run.
2. David Zaharakis, Orazio Fantasia, Conor McKenna, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Travis Colyer hurt the Swans with their pace in round 14, so look for the Bombers to play on quickly this week to give their runners the advantage.
3. Tom Bellchambers must push forward whenever possible to force the Swans' big men to be accountable, and the same goes for Daniher when he takes over in the ruck, so the Swans defenders can't hedge their bets and play off their men.
THE SIX POINTS
1. The Swans won a thriller over the Bombers in round 14; Essendon led by 19 points at the 23-minute mark before the Swans finished strong and won thanks to a Gary Rohan goal after the final siren.
2. Sydney has dominated Essendon recently, winning the past seven matches including two by 50 points or more. The Bombers last defeated the Swans in round 20, 2011 by just one point.
3. Sydney is the most experienced finals team of the top eight with a combined 267 games, a big advantage over Essendon with only 85. Only 19 listed Bombers have played in a final compared to the Swans' 28.
4. The Bombers were the worst clearance team during the home and away season averaging only 34.2 per game, compared to the Swans who are ranked 12th, with an average of 35.9.
5. Sydney has won its last three elimination finals since 2008, while Essendon is aiming for its first finals win since 2004. The sides last played in a final in 1999.
6. Lance Franklin's amazing 10-goal performance against Carlton in round 23 has propelled him from 12th to seventh in the Schick AFL Player Ratings, a career high for the superstar Swan.
WHAT THE COACHES SAY
John Longmire: "We tend to focus primarily on the recent form of the Bombers which has been really solid. We looked at that game (in round 14) and we had to do everything right in the last few minutes (to win)," he said this week.
John Worsfold: "To have the players look like they really believed in themselves at three-quarter time, that they wanted to take the game on and go on and win, their attitude was outstanding. It hurts not to hold on and win the game," he said after round 14 loss.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Michael Hurley
Essendon used youngster Michael Hartley on superstar Swan Lance Franklin last time and his inaccuracy (0.6) probably flattered the Bomber. Hurley is the All Australian defender and should go to Franklin even if it forces him to curb his attacking style.
AFL.com.au PREDICTION: Sydney by 23 points
