Carlton v Sydney Swans
Saturday, July 18 2009, 2.10pm, Docklands
Season to date
Inconsistency has dogged the Blues this year, but with seven rounds to go they can sniff finals footy. Sitting in seventh on the ladder, it has been a roller-coaster of satisfying wins (thrashing Richmond in round one, victories over Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and a thrilling win in Brisbane) coupled with some close losses to Hawthorn and St Kilda and a disappointing loss to Fremantle on the Gold Coast.
Last week’s four-point over the Tigers, with spearhead Brendan Fevola bagging nine, came two weeks after Essendon demolished the Blues by 69 points - a loss described as embarrassing by coach Brett Ratten.
Only twice have Carlton strung together back-to-back wins this season.
Recent form
Round 11, Carlton 16.16 (112) d Brisbane Lions 16.10 (105), Gabba
Round 12, Carlton 14.11 (95) lost to St Kilda 16.8 (104), Docklands
Round 13, Carlton 9.13 (67) lost to Essendon 21.10 (136), MCG
Round 14, Carlton 16.19 (115) d Fremantle 15.10 (100), Subiaco Oval
Round 15, Carlton 16.13 (109) d Richmond 12.17 (89), MCG
Last time they met
Sydney Swans 12.12 (84) d Carlton 9.13 (67) round four, 2009, SCG
A goalless second term and inaccurate kicking was Carlton’s downfall as the Swans got over the line by 17 points.
The Blues started promisingly in the first term but a return of just seven behinds hurt them badly in the second. The Swans were up by three goals at the final break to hold on for the win.
For the Swans, Rhyce Shaw had 29 disposals, while Brett Kirk with a game-high nine tackles and Jude Bolton shut down the Blues in the centre of the ground.
For Carlton, Jarrad Waite was outstanding with 31 disposals while spearhead Brendan Fevola was held to 1.4 by Craig Bolton.
The venue: Docklands
Almost a year ago to the day (round 16, 2008, July 20) the Swans defeated Carlton on this ground in a thriller by two points. In 2009, Carlton has a 3-1 record at Docklands, but the Swans have only played there once this season. It was an opening round 15-point loss to St Kilda.
The coach: Brett Ratten
The 38-year-old is a decorated former Blue who took over from Denis Pagan as caretaker coach with six rounds to go in 2007. He currently has a win/loss record of 18-25 since taking over and this season he is 8-7.
Ratten played 255 games for the Blues between 1990 and 2003 and is a three-time Carlton best and fairest winner.
Strengths
Two of the modern greats in midfielder Chris Judd and spearhead Brendan Fevola are obvious standouts but there are a posse of younger stars coming through that have Carlton fans excited.
Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy have provided plenty of drive from the middle this season, while Matthew Kreuzer in the ruck , hard-working Shaun Grigg in midfield and rookie Aaron Joseph (round 12 rising star nominee) have also shown they can become future leaders at the club.
Missing in action
Paul Bower (knee) – test
Sam Jacobs (foot) – test
Setanta O’hAilpin (general soreness) – test
Darren Pfeiffer (shoulder) – test
Andrew Walker (shoulder) – test
Simon Wiggins (hamstring) – test
Robert Warnock (foot) – 1-2 weeks
Jarrad Waite (knee) – season
The key: Who wants it more?
It really is do-or-die for the Swans. A loss would all but extinguish their faint hopes of finals footy. As for Carlton, in seventh spot, they really need to lock down a spot in the eight.
If Carlton can win their fair share of the clearances and Judd is able to evade his taggers, Fevola should be able to apply some scoreboard pressure together with the wily Eddie Betts.
Swan Darren Jolly remains one of the best ruckmen in the competition and will be a huge test for young Matthew Kreuzer and Shaun Hampson.
The Swans playing their traditional brand of one-on-one, hard footy should be able to shutdown their younger, more inconsistent opponent and take the points. But the Bloods record on the road suggests otherwise.
The young gun: Bryce Gibbs
Gibbs is enjoying an outstanding season, averaging just over 26 disposals a game. In round nine this year, he became the fifth youngest Carlton player ever to reach 50 games. He racked up 31 disposals at 84 per cent efficiency, six tackles and two assists in that game. The No.1 selection in the 2006 NAB AFL draft debuted in 2007 for Carlton and is the son of Glenelg legend Ross Gibbs.
The big questions
Can Fevola continue the form that saw him rack up a career-best nine-goal haul last week?
The Blues haven't beaten the Swans since round eight 2000. Can they snap that losing streak?
Will Brett Ratten offer Nick Stevens and Heath Scotland a place in his 22?
Michael OLoughlin looked the part as a leading forward against the Dons, can he repeat the dose this week?
Which youngsters will the development-minded Paul Roos throw into this contest?
What they’re saying
"Maybe it's a chance for us to just focus on what we have to do this week, the way we want to play and the way that we can actually execute our game plan the best we can." - Carlton coach Brett Ratten.
