Just what do the Sydney Swans stand to gain via pick 3 in the 2020 AFL National Draft next week?

The numbers say the player chosen at #3 will better 150 games and is a 42 percent chance of reaching 200 games but only a 4 percent chance of getting to 300 games.

He’s a 39 percent chance of winning an AFL premiership, a two in 34 chance of winning a Brownlow Medal and a one in 34 chance of winning a Norm Smith Medal.

And, if you were inclined to look beyond the playing field, he is a one in 34 chance of being an AFL club Chief Executive or a recruiting boss turned football chief.

That is according to the averages of the career records and post-football achievements of 34 players chosen at #3 since the first national draft in 1986, including 12 players still playing in the AFL.

It is a field headed by Chris Judd, who was pick #3 in 2001 behind Luke Hodge and Luke Ball, and Dustin Martin, who was pick #3 in 2009 behind Tom Scully and Jack Trengove.

Between them Judd and the still brilliant Martin have played 543 games and kicked 500 goals. They’ve won four premierships (one as captain), four Norm Smith Medals and three Brownlow Medals, finished top 10 in the Brownlow Medal 13 times, and polled a total of 401 Brownlow votes.

Plus, they’ve won 10 All-Australian selections, three Leigh Matthews Trophies as the AFLPA Player of the Year and seven club best & fairest awards.

Both are undeniable examples of how the right pick at #3 in the draft can be such big thing. And can make such an enormous difference over a prolonged period.  

The Swans have had pick #3 in the national draft only three times – Shannon Grant in 1994, Nic Fosdike in 1998 and Callum Mills in 2015.

Grant’s 301 games for Sydney and North Melbourne is the most by a player drafted at pick #3, ahead of Judd’s 279, Stephen Febey’s 258 and Ryan Griffen’s 257.

Callum Mills (matched academy bid) was pick number 3 in the 2015 AFL Draft.

The pick #3 premiership honor roll includes Judd, Martin, Grant, Fosdike, Graham Wright, Trent Croad, Alan Didak, Xavier Ellis and Chris Masten.

Wright, a Collingwood 201-gamer, is the pick #3 who is now the Hawthorn football boss, while the #3 pick who went on to be CEO at North Melbourne was Carl Dilena, a 33-gamer at Fitzroy and North.

The 34 players chosen at #3 in the AFL draft since its inception in 1986, together with their club of origin, AFL games and AFL clubs, are:

PLAYERS CHOSEN AT PICK #3

Year

Player

Club of Origin

AFL Club/s

AFL Games

1986

Steven Febey

Devonport

Melb

258

1987

Graham Wright

East Devonport

Coll

201

1988

Carl Dilena

Sturt

Fitz/NM

33

1989

Jody Arnol

North Hobart

StK

13

1990

Mark Brady

Old Scotch

Fitzroy

4

1991

Darren Kowal

Claremont

Melb

105

1992

Michael Prior

East Perth

Ess/WC

90

1993

Justin Murphy

Central U18

Rich/Carl/Geel/Ess

185

1994

Shannon Grant

Western U18

Syd/NM

301

1995

Brendon Fewster

West Perth

WC/Frem

70

1996

Rory Hilton

Murray U18

Bris/Rich

91

1997

Trent Croad

Dandenong U18

Haw/Frem

222

1998

Nic Fosdike

Norwood

Syd

164

1999

Aaron Fiora

Port Adel (SANFL)

Rich/StK

140

2000

Alan Didak

Port Adel (SANFL)

Coll

218

2001

Chris Judd

Sandringham U18

WC/Carl

279

2002

Jared Brennan

Southern Dist (NT)

Bris/GC

173

2003

Colin Sylvia

Bendigo U18

Melb/Frem

163

2004

Ryan Griffen

South Adel

WB/GWS

257

2005

Xavier Ellis

Gippsland U18

Haw/WC

120

2006

Lachie Hansen

Gippsland U18

NM

151

2007

Chris Masten

East Fremantle

WC

215

2008

Stephen Hill *

West Perth

Frem

218

2009

Dustin Martin *

Bendigo U18

Rich

244

2010

Sam Day *

Sturt

GC

137

2011

Dom Tyson *

Oakleigh U18

GWS/Melb/NM

110

2012

Lachie Plowman *

Calder U18

GWS/Carl

110

2013

Jack Billings *

Oakleigh U18

StK

126

2014

Angus Brayshaw *

Sandringham U18

Melb

94

2015

Callum Mills *

North Shore

Syd

92

2016

Hugh McCluggage *

North Ballarat U18

Bris

82

2017

Paddy Dow *

Bendigo U18

Carl

42

2018

Izak Rankine *

West Adel

GC

12

2019

Luke Jackson *

East Fremantle

Melb

6

* denotes players still in the AFL.