Only five times in 34 years since the birth of the modern AFL National Draft have the Sydney Swans had a selection inside the top three. And the numbers say it is a ticket to a guaranteed AFL 200-gamer.

But club history warns it is not as simple as that. Because, while the five players picked in the top three by the Swans have played a combined 1027 AFL games, or an average of 205.4, only 357 have been in red and white. Average 71.4.

Nic Fosdike, a 2005 Swans premiership player, has mathematically been the best of the club’s top three draft picks. Drafted from SANFL club Norwood in 1998, he played 164 games from 1999-2008.

Callum Mills, a North Shore product and Swans Academy graduate claimed by the club at #3 in 2015 after they matched a bid from Melbourne, is next best with 92 games.

The 2015 draft was the first in which live bidding occurred for father/son players and products of the club academies in New South Wales and Queensland.

Operating under a system whereby each pick in the draft has an allocated points value, the Swans used points from picks 33-36-37-43 to match the Melbourne bid.

The Swans’ other top three draft picks were defectors. Darren Gasper, pick #1 in 1993, Anthony Rocca, pick #2 in 1994, and Shannon Grant, pick #3 in 1994, played 21, 22 and 58 games for the Swans before seeking a move to Melbourne. Gaspar played 207 games for Richmond, Rocca 220 games for Collingwood and Grant 243 games for North Melbourne.

On Wednesday, 9 December, when the 2020 AFL Draft will be held as a virtual event at the end of a Covid-ravaged season like never before, the Swans are listed to claim a sixth top three pick.

But in a year in which so little has been certain even this is no certainty.

With fancied #1 pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan linked to the Western Bulldogs via the club’s Next Generation Academy it is quite possible that Sydney’s pick #3 could slide back to #4.

All it will take is a bid on Ugle-Hagan from Adelaide, who have the treasured #1 pick, or North Melbourne, who are armed with pick #2. Or even the Swans themselves at #3.

This would force the Bulldogs to match the rival bid to claim the Indigenous tall forward from Warrnambool, who has been liked by recruiters and draft experts to a young Lance Franklin.

If the bid was to come from Adelaide and the Bulldogs matched it, as draft observers say they undoubtedly would, then Ugle-Hagan would be the #1 pick. Adelaide then would slide to #2, North Melbourne to #3 and Sydney to #4.

While Adelaide and North have kept their plans to themselves, there has been speculation that if they bypass Ugle-Hagan Sydney may well bid on the 194cm forward, who was denied the chance to press his claims this year by Covid restrictions.

This has come after Swans list and recruiting chief Kinnear Beatson told an official AFL podcast last month that Ugle-Hagan was "an exceptional talent and clearly No.1 in our eyes."

It is all part of the pre-draft theatre, and Beatson, like his Adelaide and North counterparts, will give nothing away until the draft.

AFL Media reporter Callum Twomey, one of the game’s foremost draft authorities, has suggested the first bid for Ugle-Hagan may not come until Hawthorn at pick #4.

Speaking recently on AFL Trade Radio, Twomey said: “I just think at this point in the draft and how the draft has panned out this year, with these prized picks and the fact that North Melbourne and Adelaide haven’t had picks this early for so long – they can take their kids and fully think they are potentially better than JUH because they’ve played this year.

“It’s an easy sell, this has been my gut feel on these early picks. I think the mostly likely scenario is that (the bid comes from Hawthorn at pick four). In the end, is it a free kick (to other clubs) or embracing the player that you’re picking up?”

So, according to Twomey, the focus for the Swans will be two-fold – drafting the best available talent and setting up a mechanism to ensure he plays his entire career in the Harbour City.

Whoever the first player chosen by the Swans in the 2020 draft is he will be the 23^rd top 10 pick in club history since the first draft as it is known today was held in 1986.

It has been a lop-sided journey. The club enjoyed 17 top 10 picks in the first 13 years, including three each in 1993 and 1998, but only five had followed in the last 21 years.

Jarrad McVeigh, a 325-game captain and premiership ace turned assistant-coach was pick #5 in 2002, before Gary Rohan, now at Geelong, was pick #6 to Sydney in 2009. He played 106 games for the Swans from 2010-18, including the 2014-16 grand finals.

Since Mills, the Swans have picked up Academy product Nick Blakey with pick #10 in 2018 and claimed Dylan Stephens from Norwood in the SANFL with pick #5 in 2019.

McVeigh and Jude Bolton, pick #8 in 1998, have played most games for the club among the 22 top 10 picks, followed by 223-gamer Jared Crouch, who was pick #8 in 1995, and Fosdike.