The Sydney Swans will be looking to extend a recent domination over Carlton to kick start their 2017 campaign with a win at the MCG on Saturday.
The Swans have won 21 of their past 24 meetings with the Blues since Round 14, 2001, including the last seven in a row.
Not since Round 13, 2011 when they lost by 34 points at Etihad Stadium, has Sydney fallen to Carlton.
And only five members of the Sydney side that day will play against Carlton on Saturday – captain Josh Kennedy, Heath Grundy, Dan Hanneberry, Nick Smith and Sam Reid.
Sydney has won three of its last four meetings with Carlton by more than 10 goals. And there has been one big X factor: Lance Franklin.
Since moving to the Harbour City ‘Buddy’ has played four times against Carlton for hauls of six, seven, four and four goals. And he’s figured in the Brownlow Medal votes each time: 2-3-1-1.
Swans captain Josh Kennedy also has been a dominant figure in the same games, with 41-22-27-35 possessions and top Brownlow votes twice.
Franklin’s seven goals in Round 18 last year is the equal highest single-game haul in 25 games between the two sides since the turn of the century.
Barry Hall also kicked seven for the Swans against the Blues in Round 8, 2000, while Franklin and Hall had six-goal games against Carlton in 2014 and 2004 respectively.
The Blues’ biggest goal haul in the same period against Sydney was Brendan Fevola’s six goals in 2003.
Kennedy has two of the four biggest possession counts in games between the clubs since the turn of the century.
His 41 possessions in Round 17, 2014 is the second-highest total behind Jarrad McVeigh’s 42 possessions in the 2013 semi-final, while his 35-possession game in Round 18 last year ranks fourth behind Anthony Koutoufides’ 39 possessions for Carlton in Round 8, 2000.
But from a purely statistical and historical viewpoint there is one totally different variable in play this week: the venue.
Sydney has not played Carlton at the MCG since the 1986 qualifying final, when Tom Hafey was coach and Dennis Carroll was captain in opposition to Blues counterparts Robert Walls and Mark Maclure.
Carlton won by 16 points. Greg Williams was Sydney’s leading possession winner with 27 while Paul Hawke was the team’s leading goal kicker with three. Craig Bradley had 33 possessions for Carlton and Stephen Kernahan kicked five goals.
During Sydney’s 21-3 domination of recent meetings it’s 8-1 at the SCG, 4-0 at Stadium Australia, 6-2 at Etihad Stadium, and 3-0 at the former Carlton home ground of Princes Park.
Brett Kirk is tackled by Carlton's Andrew Carrazzo during Round 3, 2006, at Docklands.
Scores in games between Sydney and Carlton since the turn of the century have been:
Rd 18, 2016 – Sydney 10.14 (74) d Carlton 10.8 (68) at SCG by 6 points.
Rd 2, 2016 – Sydney 20.11 (131) d Carlton 10.11 (61) at Etihad by 60 points.
Rd 9, 2015 – Sydney 19.8 (122) d Carlton 9.8 (62) at SCG by 60 points.
Rd 17, 2014 – Sydney 18.14 (122) d Carlton 7.9 (51) at SCG by 71 points.
SF, 2013 – Sydney 13.8 (86) d Carlton 8.14 (62) at Stadium Australia by 24 points.
Rd 14, 2013 – Sydney 8.17 (65) d Carlton 5.13 (43) at SCG by 22 points.
Rd 19, 2012 – Sydney 14.9 (93) d Carlton 10.11 (71) at Etihad by 22 points.
Rd 13, 2011 – Carlton 15.10 (100) d Sydney 10.6 (66) at Etihad by 34 points.
Rd 6, 2011 – Carlton 12.15 (87) d Sydney 10.11 (71) at SCG by 16 points.
EF, 2010 – Sydney 14.15 (99) d Carlton 13.16 (94) at Stadium Australia by 5 points.
Rd 16, 2010 – Sydney 16.11 (107) d Carlton 10.8 (68) at Etihad by 39 points.
Rd 16, 2009 – Carlton 19.10 (124) d Sydney 9.9 (63) at Etihad by 61 points.
Rd 4, 2009 – Sydney 12.12 (84) d Carlton 9.13 (67) at SCG by 17 points.
Rd 16, 2008 – Sydney 18.13 (121 d Carlton 18.11 (119) at Etihad by 2 points.
Rd 15, 2007 – Sydney 25.12 (162) d Carlton 15.10 (100) at SCG by 62 points.
Rd 22, 2006 – Sydney 21.10 (136) d Carlton 6.8 (44) at SCG by 92 points.
Rd 3, 2006 – Sydney 12.9 (81) d Carlton 11.8 (74) at Etihad by 7 points.
Rd 11, 2005 – Sydney 18.8 (116) d Carlton 14.7 (91) at Etihad by 25 points.
Rd 14, 2004 – Sydney 15.5 (95) d Carlton 12.12 (84) at Princes Park by 11 points.
Rd 16, 2003 – Sydney 18.7 (115) d Carlton 12.12 (84) at Princes Park by 31 points.
Rd 1, 2003 – Sydney 22.14 (146) d Carlton 10.12 (72) at Stadium Australia by 74 points.
Rd 17, 2002 – Sydney 13.14 (92) d Carlton 10.9 (69) at Stadium Australia by 23 points.
Rd 2, 2002 – Sydney 17.9 (111) d Princes Park 4.9 (33) at Princes Park by 78 points.
Rd 14, 2001 – Sydney 12.19 (91) d Carlton 12.9 (81) at SCG by 10 points.
Rd 8, 2000 – Carlton 16.13 (109) d Sydney 9.10 (64) at Princes Park by 45 points.
